Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor
Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.
The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.
He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.
